A relentless truth of life is that nothing lasts forever. Oil is no different. It is a limited resource. And besides fuel from coal, we do not have the capacity to manufacture oil.

The list of life changing moments, which have changed the course of human history, would probably fill just a few pages.

In the world of transport, the invention of the wheel around 8 000 B.C., the discovery of oil in China in 500 B.C., the invention of the first internal combustion engine in France in 1807, the drilling of the world’s first commercial oil well in Poland in 1853, Gottlieb Daimler’s invention of what is often recognised as the prototype of the modern gasoline engine in 1885 and Karl Benz’s invention of the world’s first ‘modern’ automobile in Germany, also in 1885, has brought us to the point where we find ourselves today – with the new 750 HP Volvo FH16 being the most powerful truck in the world.

Producing 2 800 Nm of torque at 900 revs/minute, after which the torque curve rises sharply and reaches its peak level of 3 550 Nm at 1 050 revs/minute, then levels out to 1 400 revs/minute, Volvo’s 750 HP engine makes it possible to maintain a high speed on even the toughest uphill climbs.  The engine is coupled to Volvo’s I-Shift automated gear changing system which has been modified to handle the engine’s high torque. The rear axle range encompasses axles for gross combination weights of up to 250 tonnes. What a truck!

The fastest car in the world is the Bugatti Veyron Super Sport. Its top speed is 430 km/h and it does zero to 100 km/h in 2.4 seconds. Its aluminium body, narrow angle 8 litre W16 Engine with 1 200 HP comes in at a base price of R18.5 million.

In talking about money, the principle upon which economics is based is not difficult to understand. Price is determined by supply and demand.  Look at trucks and cars for example. Differentiated by build quality and performance, there won’t be too many Volvo F16 750s or Bugatti Veyron Super Sports on the roads. The more common trucks and cars are a dime a dozen by comparison. Inflation too is not difficult to understand either. An increase in production costs will result in an increase in selling price. Oil is no different.

According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, the world’s proved oil reserves of 1 383.2 billion barrels will last for 46 years if oil production and consumption are to remain at current levels. The world’s natural gas reserves will last for 59 years – if production is to continue at the 2010 rate. However, this is unlikely given that the world’s population will grow by 1.4 billion over the next 20 years, and in the same period, there will be a 40% increase in world primary energy consumption. We could safely say that a similar increase, if not more, would apply to the following 20 years after that.

So, where does that leave us? The average annual increase per barrel of crude oil since 1861 until now is 5.4% per annum. If we increase our consumption at a steady 2% per annum, taking us up to the 40% we spoke of, then we will run out of oil in 2045, assuming that we don’t find any more oil. But, can we afford to assume? Even if we did find oil in the oceans, the depth at which it would be located would make it almost impossible to extract and at a cost way above what is costs today. Even so, by 2045 we could be paying as much as US$ 687 (R5 294.80) per barrel of crude compared to the US$109 we pay today. That is a 530% increase.  But given supply and demand, it will probably be a lot more. Either way, we had better look to developing alternate fuel sources as a matter of urgency.

One indomitable fact is this: Running a transport company tomorrow will not be the same as running a transport company today! And a 25 year-old of today will be 60 years old by 2045, just 5 years away from retirement. What then? Think about it!