Because of the recent strike action, the South African freight industry is expected to show a reduced risk in defaults in the air freight and rail sub-sectors due to companies switching to safer transport modes, says Saijil Singh, lead analyst at international credit insurer Coface.

Singh says the true impact of the mass action will only be apparent in the fourth quarter of 2012, with businesses in the road transport sectorexpected to continue finding difficulty into the first quarter of 2013.

“Due to the lag effect, maritime freight is not expected to show any immediate negative indicators.”

International investor sentiment is regressing with many investors viewing the current dissatisfaction as early warning signs of South Africa’s own ‘Arab Spring’.

The effect on Zimbabwe is one example of the knock-on effect of the recent transport strikes in South Africa affecting neighbouring countries.

“Trade between South Africa and Zimbabwe hinges mainly on moving goods by road and accounts for 70% of Zimbabwe’s imports. Industrialists in Zimbabwe estimate that the country lost as much as US$100 million a day as a result of South Africa’s truck drivers’ strike.

“This affected the flow of goods through the Beitbridge border post – Southern Africa’s busiest inland port. The industry should be able to recover in the short term, but while the risk of future strike action remains, the threat of business failure continues to increase,” says Singh.