The notable decrease in piracy in the Somali Basin has left security experts puzzled.

Since 2009, there have been over 700 attacks off of the coast of Somalia, but in 2014 there were only 11 incidents of piracy, which did not include a single ship hijacking. In fact, there have been no ship hijackings in the area since the start of January 2013. This is a considerable improvement considering that toward the end of 2011, seven incidents of ship hijacking occurred each month.

Experts cannot confirm a single reason for the sharp decline, but suggest that perhaps the presence of three international naval task forces in the area, the extensive use by ship owners of armed private security guards, and improved best security practices for sailing through high-risk waters off East Africa, have played a vital role.

This drop in piracy could see countries that have contributed to the international naval task forces to limit their presence or even stop it all-together.

The mandate for the European Union’s Naval Force expires at the end of 2016. With European defence budgets under severe strain, there might be pressures to limit the scale of the force.