Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue to rise and eventually, break the 9-billion-tonne level by 2019.

This is according to an annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) released late last year.

The report notes that despite China’s efforts to moderate its coal consumption, it will still account for three-fifths of demand growth during the outlook period.

“We have heard many pledges and policies aimed at mitigating climate change, but over the next five years they will mostly fail to arrest the growth in coal demand,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at the launch of the book.

The Executive Director called for more investment in high-efficiency coal-fired power plants, especially in emerging economies.

“New plants are being built, in an arc running from South Africa to Southeast Asia, but too many of these are based on decades-old technology,” she said. “Regrettably, they will be burning coal inefficiently for many years to come.”

Global coal demand growth has been slowing in recent years, and the report sees that trend continuing.

Coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019, the report said. This compares to the 2013 report’s forecast of 2.3% for the five years through 2018 and the actual growth rate of 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2013.

The report’s forecasts come with considerable uncertainties, especially regarding the prospect of new policies affecting coal.

Authorities in China as well as in key markets like Indonesia, Korea, Germany and India, have announced policy changes that could sharply affect coal market fundamentals.

The possibility of these policy changes becoming reality is compounding uncertainty resulting from the current economic climate.