“Will the order for all 465 locomotives be of an identical type, or will risk mitigation see the order split between a couple of vendors? This was certainly the case with the 34/35/36 classes. There is certainly manoeuvring occurring, hence the recent announcement of the Barloworld/Progress Rail JV. RRL Grindrod probably does not have the size, capital, or inertia to go head to head with the multinationals, but is certainly well-positioned with capacity to partner with the likes of MTI/Webtec for a tilt at the order, should it be split.
“The Europeans are focused on short, high-speed freight trains, to slot between passenger schedules, so European builders do not have current locomotive models capable of handling the heavy, slow, freight drags common to NG [smaller-than-standard-gauge] in South Africa/Australia/Brazil. I think it would be highly unlikely that European builders will be competitive, or have current NG expertise for the [SA] diesel order. India will not be in the race as locomotive manufacture is a state monopoly, and although their wage structure is low, there is massive over-staffing for political purpose, so their cost-base is actually quite high. India does not have any modern product that they hold export rights for, and rely on rehashes of ALCo designs from 1950/60 era. To date Rites (Rail India Technical and Economic Services Ltd) have not covered themselves with glory in their dealings in Africa, having recently been run out of [operating concessions in] both Tanzania and the Beira Corridor.”
