Commentators in the heavy vehicle sector in South Africa are bullish about prospects for the remainder of 2012, although there are some reservations about the rate of growth in 2013 based on the government’s commitment to proceed with promised infrastructural spend.

The positive stance comes on the back of figures released by the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), which indicate a cumulative year-to-date (to the end of July)market growth of 6% in sales of heavy vehicles with gross vehicle mass ratings of more than 3 500 kg.

Bruce Dickson, deputy CEO of Man South Africa, says the sales figures indicate that “the market is not only resilient but growing”. The market remains fiercely competitive and extremely margin-sensitive. Vehicle suppliers that can offer lower lifecycle costs are gaining market share, both locally and in sub-Saharan Africa, which buys much of its capital equipment from South Africa.

“Direct foreign investment north of our borders is driving the sales of new trucks assembled in South Africa to service mining, agriculture and construction projects in many sub-Saharan countries. While premium-class long-haul truck tractors are popular in Africa, we are seeing the rise in popularity of robust, easy-to-repair work horses in various SADC countries.

“Locally, the road freight industry is maturing at a rapid rate, driven by its ongoing integration into multinational supply chains. Truck fleet operators in South Africa are therefore deploying trucks that not only comply with international safety and environmental protection codes, but also boost operator profitability by effectively lowering total cost of ownership, ”Dickson remarks.

Nico Vermeulen of NAAMSA says that the heavy truck sector is in good shape “at least for the next six months. Sales of [heavy] trucks are aligned with economic development and if the government goes ahead with spending on infrastructure, this sector will continue growing into 2013.”

Dr Casper Kruger, vice president of Hino, takes the view that sales of heavy vehicles are likely to continue through to December with unit sales reaching the 27 500 to 28 000 mark.

Sales figures in 2013 should continue the pattern of growth if the current level of GDP growth is maintained at 2 to 2.5% in 2013.

“In that light, the forecast of 28 000 units for the year to the end of December shows this is a significant market. I don’t think we will see that level of growth next year and the heavy vehicle market sector will be impacted if the government does not proceed with infrastructural development.”

He points out that vehicles bought during the halcyon days of 2008, when sales of 34 659 were achieved, are now coming up for replacement five years down the line.

“If prospects for growth are not good then operators could wait another year before replacing these vehicles.”

Turning to the factors that impacted on heavy vehicles sales to date this year, Kruger mentions that road tanker companies have experienced a fall-off in business as a result of Transnet’s improved oil pipeline capacity.

“If Transnet manages to improve its freight rail service, we could see a drop in demand for heavy vehicles carrying freight. But the demand for vehicles to undertake secondary distribution will continue. However, the big logistics companies have become reliant on the predictability of the service provided by truck operators. The model works for them and they can control it.”

Hino, at 12.2%, is the second largest player in the local market behind the range of brands supplied and marketed by Mercedes-Benz.