London risk management consultancy, PGI Intelligence, says intensification in the conflict between Renamo and Frelimo has led to deterioration in the security environment in central Mozambique.

It adds that efforts to launch peace negotiations have so far yielded little success, due to the groups’ unwillingness to agree on terms, and what it calls “a cessation of the conflict” that is unlikely to cease in the next six months.

The consultancy is expecting a renewed government offensive in the coming weeks, with a high risk of violence and the potential for disruption to infrastructure projects and cargo movements in the northern and central parts of the country.

Political tension and violence have escalated in Mozambique since the beginning of 2016 due to growing clashes between the Frelimo-led government and the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) opposition group.

The violence has concentrated in Manica, Zambezia, Nampula, Niassa, Sofala, and Tete. Fighting is reported to have been especially fierce in Tete, Mozambique’s main coal mining hub, from where 11 000 civilians have fled into Malawi since January, according to the UN High Commission for Refugees.

The escalating conflict poses a serious threat to freight movements and civilian transport in Sofala, where Renamo fighters have repeatedly opened fire on buses and private vehicles along the EN1 highway, Mozambique’s main north-south arterial road.

On 8 February, RENAMO threatened to set up checkpoints on the EN1 and EN6 highways, posing a further threat to vehicles travelling along those routes. In response, the UN has implemented travel restrictions on all field missions in Sofala, Manica, Tete and Zambezia provinces, limiting travel for only essential tasks. Meanwhile, some bus companies suspended services on inter-provincial routes in Sofala province on 10 March.

Despite tentative steps towards peace talks, there is little prospect of a resolution to the crisis in at least the next six months. As the violence continues, attacks on transport and disruption to road travel will remain key security considerations in parts of northern and central Mozambique, particularly the EN1 and EN6 highways. The Zimbabwean and Malawian borders are at particular risk of disruption, where large numbers of refugee movements are likely to continue in the coming months.

As the conflict develops, there is potential for disruption to mining activities in Tete province, as well as to infrastructure projects along the Nacala logistics corridor, which links Tete with the port in Nacala via Malawi. Any offensive launched by the government will increase the likelihood of further disruption, particularly in Manica and Sofala.

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